Wicked Problems by Dr. Jack Kem

The “Wicked Problem” that is at the forefront for the next two years is “what to do about Afghanistan.” According to ISAF, their current mission today for the campaign in Afghanistan is:

ISAF conducts operations in partnership with the Government of the Islamic Republic of Afghanistan (GIRoA) and in coordination with Operation Enduring Freedom, the United Nations Assistance Mission in Afghanistan and the international community in order to assist GIRoA to defeat the insurgency, establish a secure environment, extend viable governance, and promote development throughout Afghanistan.
(http://smallwarsjournal.com/documents/isafcampaignplansummary.pdf)

Within this campaign plan, there are three lines of operation: Security; Governance; and Reconstruction and Development. The key planning factors for the ISAF Afghanistan Campaign Plan are:

· Counterinsurgency campaign.
· Shape, in order to clear in order to hold and build.
· Prioritize the areas to clear and hold.
· Establish and maintain freedom of movement.
· Apply greater effort on the narcotics-insurgency nexus.
· Identify and engage key Afghan community leaders.
· Interdict and disrupt insurgent movement to and from sanctuaries in the border region.
· Build Afghan capability, capacity, and credibility.

The CAC Commander, LTG William B. Caldwell, IV, recently wrote a blog on Small Wars Journal, where he stated, “As ideas of an Afghan “surge,” similar to the course of action adopted in Iraq, circulate among decision makers, the nuances of the Afghanistan situation remain particularly relevant.”
(http://smallwarsjournal.com/blog/2008/11/cac-cg-response-to-swj-blog-po/)

LTG Caldwell lists additional considerations for the situation in Afghanistan:

· Reconciling regional conflicts
· Building governmental capacity down to sub-district levels
· Training and reforming Afghan security forces
· (Providing) legal assistance / enforce the rule of law through a functioning Afghan court system
· Developing Afghanistan’s infrastructure

There are a number of strategy reviews that are reportedly being conducted for the “wicked problem” in Afghanistan. An excellent starting point for these reviews is to conduct a complete framing / reframing of the problem. This problem framing should assist in explaining the relationships within the context of Afghanistan – and will assist in determining the actions to take in the next two years in Afghanistan.

TRADOC Pam 525-5-500 provides some guidance on problem framing; the tasks associated with problem framing are:

· Establish the strategic context
· Synthesize strategic guidance
· Describe the systemic nature of the problem(s) to be solved
· Determine strategic trends
· Identify gaps in knowledge
· Establish assumptions about the problem
· Identify the operational problem
· Determine Initial Mission Statement
· Obtain Approval of the Problem and Mission Statement

Key to this effort will be many of the topics discussed in earlier blogs: Framing the Problem; Problem Identification; Determination of an End State, and Development of Logical Lines of Operation / Effort. As LTG Caldwell notes, “the situation in Iraq continues to improve while in Afghanistan it deteriorates.” The “wicked problem” of Afghanistan will no doubt be a topic of intense study in action in the next two years.